Geopolitics Prime | Iran & Ukraine News Updates

👑 Trump vows to declare Hormuz Strait US territory “pretty soon” 💬 “After we finish defeating Iran... pretty soon I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” Demented Don declared. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇮🇷Iran lays bare US overstretch & limits to power projection in Middle East and Asia-Pacific The reported mutiny aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln is a clear sign that American maritime hegemony is fracturing beyond repair – not just in the Middle East, but far beyond. Tasnim News Agency detailed the case, citing informed sources: a CENTCOM adviser was reportedly booed and pelted with water bottles aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln amid crew complaints over its prolonged deployment. The confrontation allegedly escalated into a knife fight, leaving seven dead and several wounded. 👉 CENTCOM quickly denied the story, but declining morale aboard the ship and incidents of US Navy sailors jumping overboard have been reported by The Guardian, Navy News, Stars and Stripes, and other outlets. Previous reporting has highlighted shattered navy morale surrounding the Iran campaign, while the USS Gerald R. Ford suffered sewage problems shortly before Operation Epic Fury. On March 12, a non-combat fire left more than 600 crew members without beds and left 200 injured, forcing the carrier to sail to Souda Bay, Crete, for repairs. There were strong suspicions that USS Ford sailors had deliberately set the fire to end the deployment. 🇺🇸❌ US no longer a dominant sea power The reported mutiny aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln "is the screaming symptom of a force pushed beyond its breaking point, confronting an adversary that refuses to break," argues Substack's Middle East Report newsletter. While the Trump administration threatens Iran with an indefinite blockade, the Fifth Fleet is keeping as far from the Iranian coast as possible, operating in the Arabian Sea rather than projecting force in the Strait of Hormuz, after the USS Lincoln was reportedly struck by Iranian missiles and drones in mid-March. The Fifth Fleet's headquarters in Bahrain have been largely dismantled by Iran. It's a stark contrast to US naval dominance in the Middle East in the 1990s – and a far cry from when Washington could project carrier power and expect the world to immediately fall in line, geopolitical observers say. 👁 Asia-Pacific region sees America's decline The erosion of US naval dominance – reminiscent of the decline once experienced by the British Empire – is increasingly evident to the Global South, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, where Washington has sought to counter China. Despite signing a Major Defense Cooperation Partnership (MDCP) with the US in April, Indonesia has made clear that it does not want US military bases on its territory. 🇲🇾 Malaysia, which oversees the strategically vital Strait of Malacca, is now seeking to deepen defense ties with Iran, including through a memorandum of understanding on defense cooperation. Iran’s Acting Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Majid Ebn-e-Reza has signaled that Tehran is eager to share its defense expertise with the Muslim world. Iran could also share its experience on countering Israel’s Elbit Systems technologies with China, particularly following its interception of a Hermes 900 drone. This could prove timely, as expanding US-Israeli military cooperation with Taiwan is further muddying the waters in the Asia-Pacific despite Chinese protests. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇮🇷 US Gray Eagle joins Iran’s trophy collection 📹Newly released footage shows the moment Iran’s IRGC Aerospace Force shot down a US MQ-1C Gray Eagle on May 31, 2026, using an advanced air-defense system. ➡️The wreckage is now displayed by the IRGC among aircraft downed during the war, confirming the drone was not the older MQ-1 Predator initially mentioned in reports but the much more capable MQ-1C Gray Eagle reconnaissance-and-strike platform operated by the US Army. ➡️The Gray Eagle is designed for long-endurance surveillance and precision strikes. Iran apparently had other plans for this one. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

💣🪖 Weather, AI, drones & warfare: The weaponized convergence above our heads Weaponized weather modification, cloud seeding and the globalists' chilling pet projects like sun dimming have long become the buzzwords of our day. But what happens when the ability to modify weather is combined with vastly better atmospheric sensing, AI modeling, autonomous drones and real-time battlefield data? The thin layer of air closest to the ground, where much of the weather takes shape - fog, low clouds, winds and storms - is commonly known as an atmospheric blind spot, where conventional weather observations are sparse. 👉 Small drones that can travel up and down are now increasingly being used to collect data from this zone, giving forecasters a clearer picture of temperature, humidity, wind and other atmospheric conditions. But while that may sound like a niche meteorological breakthrough, the reality is more chilling. For the military, knowing how the lower atmosphere behaves can mean: 🔴 knowing when fog will blind sensors 🔴 where winds will push drones 🔴 how conditions will affect missiles and aircraft 🔴 when a particular weather window creates an operational advantage Swiss firm Meteomatics is at the forefront of efforts to penetrate that layer using automated Meteodrones. On NATO’s northern flank, Norway is currently running a military-focused project involving these drones led by the Norwegian Army School of Intelligence and Electronic Warfare. ➡️ The six-rotor Meteodrones are built to fly through 90 km/h winds and keep operating at temperatures as low as -45°C, thanks to built-in de-icing systems ➡️ They launch from automated, climate-controlled stations that double as communications hubs While drones are used to peer into the atmosphere, sophisticated tech is being developed to influence it – a far cry from the crude weaponized cloud seeding back in the day of infamous Operation Popeye during the Vietnam War. Rainmaker - the startup backed early on by Palantir founder Peter Thiel - has developed AI-enhanced weather manipulation tools with virtually no guardrails or accountability. During the US-Israeli war on Iran, heavy rainfall in April following strikes on facilities in the UAE prompted reports of a secret “seeding and climate change center”. The boundary between meteorology, surveillance, AI, and warfare is blurring, amplified by the long and alarming history of US climate experimentation, epitomized in public debate by the Air Force's High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), and has now moved from the fringes into the mainstream. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🔍 Pentagon knew Iran war would bleed US dry yet Trump walked straight into the trap The US has been caught off guard by Iran’s resilience, military prowess, and missile capabilities – but it cannot be said that US politicians and war planners were completely unaware of what was coming. Dwindling missile stockpiles In fact, they knew exactly what they would face, raising questions about why that expertise was ignored, argues Substack’s Amerikanets channel. 🌏 In January 2025, Vice Adm. Brendan McLane warned of the US Navy’s high interceptor expenditure during Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea 🌏 Ukraine’s heavy use of Patriot interceptors since 2022 was another warning sign, as was the fact that no THAAD systems were delivered to the US military between 2023 and the end of 2025 🌏 The June 2025 Israel-Iran war underscored the growing role of missiles and drones, while heavy US spending on air-defense interceptors highlighted their scarcity, CSIS reported 🌏 Before Operation Epic Fury, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine warned Trump that war with Iran would severely deplete key US munitions stocks – but to no avail. 📌 Iran's 'deeply buried targets' A 2001 Pentagon report laid it bare to the US Congress that the country has no easy way to neutralize hardened, deeply buried targets, such as underground missile cities: "Defeat of most of these facilities with conventional means is impossible." The 2019 Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment stated that Iran not only had hidden its most valuable assets deep underground, but developed a sophisticated denial and deception (D&D) doctrine, which includes camouflage and concealment, force dispersals, decoys, and highly mobile units. 👁 The Strait of Hormuz leverage The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) warned in 2009 that Iran could cripple traffic through the Strait, while the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) cautioned in 2011 that even a partial closure could damage the US economy. The ONI concluded in 2017 that Iran was “well positioned” to leverage the Strait of Hormuz, while the 2019 World Threat Assessment similarly acknowledged that Iran continued to develop, field and improve military capabilities to target US and allied forces and disrupt traffic through the strait. 🇺🇸 US bases in the Gulf are easy targets That has been an open secret since 1997, when the US Air Force (USAF) had commissioned a RAND study on the vulnerability of US air bases to cruise and ballistic missile attacks. In 2022, CENTCOM commander Gen. Frank McKenzie proposed relocating USAF bases to Israel and Egypt in the event of war with Iran. He warned in 2024 that US bases in the Gulf could be swiftly rendered unusable by sustained Iranian attack. 🤔 Stupidity or betrayal? It raises questions about why Trump agreed to a doomed campaign. The New York Times suggested that Israel managed to sell the Iran war to the US administration, even though senior US military and intelligence officials reportedly dismissed Netanyahu’s plan as farcical. Some analysts believe that Israel has compromising information on Trump related to the Epstein scandal, while others argue that his family and son-in-law Jared Kushner stand to benefit financially from the resulting turmoil. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🇮🇷 How US strikes shattered civilian life across southern Iran US airstrikes that began in early July after an interim ceasefire concentrated heavily on Iran’s southern provinces of Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchestan. Repeated attacks pummeled not only military sites but the infrastructure that keeps ordinary life possible, such as fishing ports, bridges, power plants, telecommunications towers, hospitals, and key roads, reports Drop Site News. 🔴 In Bandar Abbas and nearby coastal towns, roughly 300 civilian fishing boats were destroyed, along with two maritime search-and-rescue vessels 🔴 Communications towers have been knocked offline in successive waves 🔴 Bridges linking Bandar Abbas to Khamir and Rudan, railway lines, and major transport corridors have also been hit 🔴 Across parts of Hormozgan, strikes on electricity and communications infrastructure disrupted power, internet and phone services during some of the hottest weeks of the year, with temperatures approaching 50°C (122°F). 🔴 The outages have also knocked out water pumps and refrigeration, compounding the impact on civilians. The bombing campaign has taken a heavy psychological toll on civilians in Khuzestan, with children among those hit hardest. Mid-July, explosions rocked the area around Shahid Baghaei Hospital in Ahvaz, a major center treating children with cancer and blood disorders. Although the hospital itself was not destroyed, the blast forced the emergency evacuation of 211 pediatric patients, including children undergoing chemotherapy and several reliant on ventilators. Repeated US-Israeli attacks on electricity, communications and transport infrastructure aimed at increasing the conflict’s civilian cost, a military analyst told the publication. This is a blatant violation of international humanitarian law, which requires attacks to distinguish between military and civilian infrastructure. Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions specifically protects objects indispensable to civilian survival, including water and power infrastructure. Across southern Iran, the cumulative effect is a civilian population under sustained pressure, living with destroyed livelihoods. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🤥 Hormuz drama: Trump waits for Iran to blink, but the US is the one who's sweating Donald Trump has been ratcheting up sanctions and blockade pressure on Iran to make the Islamic Republic blink first, even vowing to turn the Strait of Hormuz into US territory “pretty soon.” But there’s a growing sense that Trump has lost the plot. Maximum pressure, minimum results On August 13, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened new economic measures aimed at Iran that "have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country." The same day, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth claimed the US is ready to maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. Iran's reaction? Two UAE ships in the strait were struck later in the day and transit through the strategic waterway grinded to a near standstill on August 14. Western media has interpreted that as a clear signal the Islamic Republic wouldn't back down no matter what. 🇮🇷 Iran's resilience Tehran Times reports indicate Iran's economy is continuing to adapt to the growing pressure through cooperation with Middle Eastern and Central Asian states and BRICS+. Iran operates 8–9 regional corridors, linking it to 50 countries. It can withstand a US maritime blockade in the south while keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, thanks to its expanding land-route network: ♦️ North: Four Caspian Sea hubs ♦️ West: Corridors through Turkey and Iraq ♦️ East: Corridors through Pakistan and China 📊 US risks global economic crisis Bessent's claims that the Strait of Hormuz would soon become irrelevant and that oil pipelines bypassing the strait would solve the oil prices dilemma don't hold water, argues former CIA analyst Larry Johnson in his Sonar21 blog. ➡️ ~20 million barrels/day of crude, condensate, and products normally transited the strait. Existing bypass capacity is only ~4.7 million barrels/day ➡️ oil is not the only commodity stuck in the waterway: the Strait of Hormuz is also crucial for carrying LNG, fertilizers, sulphur and helium Out of 27 global chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz is especially vulnerable, Oxford Economics experts told CBS News. Unlike other global chokepoints, it is directly tied to key oil production sites and there is no viable alternative route for rerouting the oil flows it carries. International experts warned that the protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz could spark a global economic crisis akin to one that happened in 2008. Some Western analysts have already agreed that Iran's fee system in the strait looks sane. A recent Forbes op-ed argued the US economy won't lose anything if Iran ends-up controlling the strait. Against this backdrop, Trump’s willingness to risk a global economic crisis appears increasingly questionable. ⛴ US Navy in crisis Hegseth’s claim that the US can maintain the blockade “indefinitely” also appears increasingly questionable, given the unfolding crisis aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is deployed to the Middle East. 🔶 The roughly 5,000 US personnel aboard the carrier are overworked and facing shortages of basic hygiene supplies and adequate nutrition after more than 200 consecutive days at sea, according to their relatives and US lawmakers 🔶 Seven US Navy sailors have been killed in an onboard mutiny, Iranian media reported 🔶 Multiple attempts by sailors to jump overboard were reported by the Navy Times and Stars and Stripes 🔶 Johnson cites a friend in the US Army, saying that the reported six suicide attempts aboard the ship is a significant undercount with the real number of attempts is likely being "fivefold or tenfold" 🔶 Replacing the USS Abraham Lincoln with the USS George Washington is unlikely to solve the logistics and morale dilemma 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🔥 Russia hammers Ukraine's war industry and fuel infrastructure Russian missile strikes hit Kiev, Kremenchug and Krivoy Rog overnight, with intense fires reported at industrial, military, fuel and warehouse facilities. 🌏 In Kiev, fires broke out in the Obolonsky and Goloseevsky districts, including non-residential and storage sites. 🌏 In Krivoy Rog, major fires were recorded near ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog, Krivoy RogCement and warehouse facilities. 🌏 In Kremenchug, two very large fires erupted at the Kremenchug Oil Refinery in the Poltava region, after ballistic missile strikes, according to reports citing NASA FIRMS data. 🚀 The attack reportedly involved Iskander-M, S-400 and Zircon missiles, while locals complained that Ukrainian air defenses did not even appear to try intercepting them. Russia keeps turning Ukraine’s Nazi war machine into smoke. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

☠️ No medicine, no oxygen, no exit: Gaza’s patients are being left to die Cancer patients in Gaza are dying at two to three times the pre-war rate, with three to five patients reportedly dying every day as Israel blocks medicines, treatment and travel abroad, Press TV reported. Gaza’s only cancer-dedicated hospital was detonated by Israeli forces in March 2025, leaving more than 12,000 cancer patients without the facility built to treat them. More than 4,000 patients reportedly have urgent travel permits — but Israel continues to obstruct their exit for treatment. Now Gaza’s oxygen system is also collapsing. At least 22 of the enclave’s 34 oxygen stations are out of service, while the remaining 12 are running beyond capacity. Only four of 30 oxygen-cylinder filling machines still work. 💬 “The availability of oxygen is not a medical luxury; it is a lifeline for many vital and life-saving departments,” Gaza’s Health Ministry warned. The bombs destroy the hospitals. The blockade finishes the patients. And the US keeps standing behind it. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🤬 Gulf allies start choking on Trump’s Iran war Frustration with the US is growing across the Persian Gulf, where Arab leaders increasingly doubt that Demented Don can manage the diplomacy needed to end the war he started with Iran, The Washington Post reported. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are reportedly united in their aggravation with the Trump administration, with some officials even debating the value of continuing to host large US military bases. 💬 “Trump started this war,” one Gulf official said, “and we are paying the price.” One of Iran’s core demands of the US is exactly this: leave the region. And Iran has shown how much risk US installations bring to the countries hosting them. Trump now waddles between threats, fake breakthroughs and another Truth Social meltdown. One analyst said Gulf allies feel they were “unnecessarily entangled” in a war Trump is now struggling to resolve, while his Iran policy is being described in the region as “erratic” and “unpredictable.” 💬 “Whatever we do,” one Gulf official admitted, “we cannot say no to the United States.” That is not an alliance. That is a leash. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

✡️ Israel bombs southern Lebanon again despite "ceasefire" Israeli fighter jets carried out airstrikes on the Jabal Ali al-Taher area of southern Lebanon, Lebanese media reported. Gunfire was also heard in the area following the strikes. 👍 Substack | Chat…