Mechanism Capital

🪪 Trump has unveiled a new US passport.

History repeating itself ❔

🏌 Starting January 1, 2027, every digital asset operation (trading, transfers, custody, and wallet services) will be subject to a 0.2% fee. The crypto industry has strongly criticized the law, calling it the harshest digital asset tax in the country. Companies warn that the new rules could push crypto businesses to relocate to other states. The tax is expected to generate around $60M per year for the state budget. Pro-crypto Trump, results 🤷‍♂️ 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Links / X / LinkedIn / IG | @mechcapital ❤️

⌛ (3:00 PM UTC) With nearly 100% probability, the rate will be left unchanged (PAUSE). 🗞 Reuters: - The base forecast is that the rate will remain unchanged. - Most Fed members are projected not to expect a rate cut until the end of 2026. - A more hawkish shift is possible - some members may even factor in a rate hike due to persistent inflation . - The key risk is that inflation has accelerated again due to the energy shock and a strong labor market, so arguments for a cut have almost disappeared. 🗞 WSJ: - A pause on rates is expected. - For markets, the tone of Kevin Warsh and the Fed's new communication will matter more than the rate decision itself . 🗞 FT: - Economists are increasingly expecting that the Fed's next move could be a hike, not a cut, by the end of 2026 . - The main reason is that inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target, and the energy factor following the conflict with Iran has already intensified price pressures. 🗞 Goldman Sachs: - The bank no longer expects a rate cut in 2026 . - New forecast: first cuts only in June and December 2027. - A rate hike is unlikely, but the risk of such a scenario has increased. 🗞 Bank of America: - The Fed will keep rates unchanged until the end of 2026 - The bank allows that at least three voting members may pencil in a rate hike this year . 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Links / X / LinkedIn / IG | @mechcapital ❤️

👶 Claude Code now temporarily blocks accounts suspected of being used by minors and requires age verification to restore access . 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Links / X / LinkedIn / IG ❤️ | @mechcapital

❤️😤 BTC Under Pressure BTC traded heavy into 3 June, down around 11.6% on the week and unable to reclaim key momentum levels. The selloff was amplified by a rare Strategy BTC sale headline 🪙, after the company disclosed it sold 32 BTC in late May to fund preferred dividend payments. 🌊 While the sale was immaterial in size, the signal was not. Strategy has long been treated as a structural BTC buyer, so even a modest sale was enough to challenge the “never sell” narrative and weigh on broader sentiment. In markets, symbolism rarely pays dividends, but it can certainly move prices. Macro Turns Less Forgiving 🛸 Oil pushed higher as Middle East hostilities flared and US-Iran talks stalled, keeping the Hormuz risk premium alive. Stronger US job openings data reduced confidence in near-term Fed cuts, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rates backdrop. 😘 BTC was therefore hit from both sides: crypto-specific deleveraging on one hand, and a macro tape where oil, real yields and policy uncertainty were all moving in the wrong direction on the other. That is not a particularly friendly seating arrangement for a high-beta asset. Options Market: Protection Still in Demand Options markets confirmed the defensive tone. 30D ATM implied vol repriced sharply higher to around 41.4, up more than 4 vols on the day and 7 vols on the week, while realised vol has caught up to implied. IV is no longer obviously cheap. Still, the surface continues to show persistent demand for downside protection, with the front-end term structure mildly inverted and risk reversals deeply negative. The message from vol is less “buy the dip” and more “please insure the dip before discussing it.” 😄 Cross-Asset Picture: AI Still Doing the Heavy Lifting The broader cross-asset picture remains mixed. Equities have been resilient on AI-linked earnings, supported by hyperscaler and semiconductor strength, but the rates market is pushing back against a smooth easing cycle. ⌨️ AI remains the key offset to the macro drag, but it is also becoming a concentration risk, with speculative capital increasingly pulled toward mega-cap tech and upcoming high-profile IPOs 👩‍🚀. The equity market still has a growth story. It just happens to be doing rather a lot of lifting for everyone else. Not Quite Panic, Not Quite Bargain-Hunting Overall, BTC is caught between structural adoption narratives and a less supportive near-term tape. Weak spot, MSTR-related sentiment damage, higher oil, firmer rate expectations, bid front-end vol, defensive skew and rising flies all point to a market still hedging downside rather than adding upside beta 😨 Unless BTC can reclaim and hold the 67k to 68k region, rallies are likely to remain vulnerable. The cleaner read is not panic. It is a repricing of downside convexity as investors wait to see whether the macro regime resolves into a soft-landing and Hormuz-resolution path, or slips into stickier inflation, higher real rates and weaker liquidity. 👨‍💻 Put simply: the market is not running for the exits. It is just making sure the exits are clearly marked. 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Links / X / LinkedIn / IG | @mechcapital ❤️

🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that under President Trump, the country will NOT have a central bank digital currency (CBDC). According to him, the administration opposes a government digital dollar and is betting on the private sector, stablecoins, and market‑based solutions rather than full control by the Federal Reserve. 🔥 This is another strong signal of support for the crypto industry and opposition to increased financial surveillance through a CBDC.

🎯 I’m actually bullish Intel now. Trump has given it the mandate of Heaven. Probably flips ETH © Andrew Kang 🟢4:17 AM · Jan 22, 2026 Intel is now more than double the market cap of Ethereum 🪙 The US Government is the ultimate kingmaker 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Linktree / X / LinkedIn | @mechcapital ❤️

Mechanism Capital pinned «🚀 Security Reminder! Don't forget - and better double-check ⏰»

❤️ ATTENTION ⚠️ Beware of scammers! We would like to warn you about possible fraudulent schemes. Please be careful not to trust anyone who contacts you under the guise of our company. ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Only authorized representatives can contact you on behalf…

🇺🇸 Pro-crypto Kevin Warsh has officially taken office as Chair of the US Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell. Warsh is considered more friendly toward the crypto market and technological innovation, and his appointment is already being discussed as a potentially bullish catalyst for BTC, XRP, and the broader crypto market 👁 Market attention is now focused on the Fed’s future policy: interest rate cuts, liquidity, and the approach toward digital assets could shift faster than many expect.