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Energy markets were steady in the overnight session with a muted response to API stats which showed a big Crude draw offset by a surprise build in gasoline. News reports of divergences between the US and Iran on the memo of understanding (MOU) which is due to be signed on Friday provided some price support along with President Trumps threat to strike Iran again if he did not like the terms of the deal Around the European morning Crude oil traded at the lows of the day with a brief sell-off right after the IEA released their monthly report as the oil agency revised its deficit for 2026 to 920 K b/d vs a 1.78 million deficit last month. Additionally - they painted a very bearish picture in their first estimate for 2027 - viewing a large surplus of 4.7 million barrel / day . Despite the bearish outlook, the IEA recognized the current tightness in the market given the recent production loss and inventory draws of the last few months. EIA stats came in supportive with Crude stocks falling more than expected. Even though gasoline inventories were close to expectations - demand was robust. Distillates did post a small build, but this was mostly due to higher-than-expected runs and inventories remain well below normal. About 20 minutes after EIA stats - a tweet claiming that Iran was not willing to proceed with the deal briefly led to a $2.5 / bbl spike in Crude - but that was quickly removed when there was no official confirmation of the rumor. WTI finished steady but then sold off post close on a hawkish outlook from the Fed where the majority of the committee now sees 1 rate hike later this year. The charts are bearish as we remain below the 100-day average, and speculators continue to liquidate. Early march lows around $72 to $70 is now the next level of support with resistance at the 100-day average at $82.91

Market moves / Macro. The prospect of a deal between the U.S. and Iran provided a positive boost to risk assets at the start of this week while dragging crude oil prices down to a three-month low. However, looking beyond the geopolitical headlines, recent macroeconomic data so far this week is mostly negative. U.S. housing starts fell 15.4% month-on-month in May, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million. This marks the lowest level since May 2020 and falls well short of the market consensus forecast of 1.43 million. Further softening was evident in U.S. industrial production, which missed analyst expectations of a 0.3% increase, printing a modest 0.1% gain for May. On the global front, economic data out of China printed mixed. May retail sales contracted by 0.6% year-on-year, the first decline since December 2022—trailing expectations of a flat reading. Big consumer items drove the miss, led by a 16.1% plunge in automotive sales and a 15.6% decline in home appliances. Conversely, Chinese industrial production served as a bright spot, growing 4.5% year-on-year in May to beat market forecasts of 4.3% and accelerate past April’s 4.1% pace. Looking ahead to the remainder of the week, the market focus shifts to tomorrow’s U.S. retail sales data followed closely by the highly anticipated FOMC meeting. While market participants do not expect a change to the benchmark interest rate, this meeting marks Kevin Warsh’s first time chairing the board. His inaugural press conference alongside the updated Summary of Economic Projections will be heavily scrutinized for definitive clues regarding the future path of monetary policy under the new leadership. Since last Friday, WTI is down 9.7%, Brent is down 8.9 % and RBOB is down 5.6%. US equities are up 1.2 %, Gold is up 2.7 %, Nat Gas is up 3.8 %.and Propane is down 4.4%. In the Ag markets – Corn is up 0.2% and soybeans are up 1.5% Sugar is up 0.9 % Natural Rubber was up 1.6% and Palm oil was up 2.2%

After settling at its lowest level since mid-April, WTI futures attempted a modest rebound at the start of overnight trading. However, yesterday’s close below the 50-day moving average triggered residual technical selling, capping the recovery and keeping futures under pressure through the Asian and European sessions. Negative sentiment was reinforced by a wave of downward revisions to Brent crude price targets, with Citigroup and Morgan Stanley joining Goldman Sachs in lowering their near-term forecasts. Downward momentum across the petroleum complex accelerated further following reports from The Wall Street Journal indicating that the U.S. will allow Iran to resume crude exports and sales immediately under the terms of the new diplomatic framework.   From a fundamental perspective, China’s crude oil throughput in May fell 9.1% from a year earlier to the lowest level in almost four years, adding significant structural pressure to the global demand outlook. Looking ahead, tomorrow’s EIA inventory report will be closely watched, with market participants maintaining a particular focus on domestic gasoline demand readings and import volumes.   A counterweight to the broader selling emerged from the National Weather Service’s update on Invest 90L (Potential Tropical Storm Arthur). According to the National Hurricane Center, the system’s projected path threatens regions housing roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of domestic refining capacity. Since the system is forecast to remain a relatively weak, short-lived tropical storm with sustained winds near 30 mph, the primary risk is not structural wind damage. Instead, the main concerns center on localized power disruptions, temporary marine logistics halts across key shipping channels, and flash flooding that could disrupt refinery personnel access and low-lying infrastructure.  The impact of this risk was most visible in Gasoline prices.    WTI’s breach of the key April 17 low of $77.22 keeps the intermediate chart bias negative, exposing the March 10 low of $71.64 as the next major downside target. Initial overhead resistance is now firmly established at the 50-day moving average, currently near $82.77.

미국-이란 MOU의 주요 내용과 쟁점은 일반투자자들이 해석하기에는 어렵고 민감한 부분이 꽤 존재함. 중요 쟁점을 간단하게만 공유해보면, 4/8일 합의된 2주간 휴전을 60일 추가연장하는 것이 일단 가장 중요한 목표. 여기서 복선은 "휴전"이지 "종전"은 아니라는 점. 60일 기간동안 호르무즈해협은 재개방 되고 첫 30일 동안은 이란이 기뢰 제거를 담당하고 해당 기간동안 통행료는 부과되지 않음. 미 해군은 해상봉쇄를 해제하고 이란 원유 수출을 용인 핵 관련 합의 내용은 일단 이란이 핵무기 개발을 중단한다는 대원칙만 존재. 향후 핵 협상 성과에 따라 해외 동결 자산 해제 및 기타 제재 완화 수위가 결정될 것. 솔직히 무슨 일이 벌어질 지 모른다는 얘기 이란이 보유한 농축우라늄 9톤 및 무기급 우라늄 440kg 향방이 쟁점인데, 이란은 당연히 평화적 우라늄 농축은 허용되어야 한다고 주장할 것. 이스라엘 입장에서는 말도 안되는 소리라고 해석할 것이라 또 헤즈볼라를 향해서 공습할 가능성을 배제 못함. 결국 트럼프가 대단한 합의를 이룬 것 처럼 이야기하지만, 이름 그대로 MOU임. JCPOA를 박살내고 이란 제재수위를 높이다가 전쟁을 벌였지만, 현재 기준 핵관련 합의 내용은 JCPOA보다 훨씬 구속력도 없고 엉망인 상황. 괜히 오바마가 놀리는 게 아님 하지만 단기적으로 금융시장은 "호르무즈 해협 개방"이라는 수사에 우선적으로 반응할 것 같음. 금융시장 참여자 입장에서는 이란 핵협상 내용은 그다지 중요한 소재가 아닐 수 있음. 핵협상이 진통을 겪어서 이스라엘이 헤즈볼라를 다시 공습한다면 그때는 다시 악재로 반영될 수 있음.

Iranian crude production/exports continues to crash

Following that steady overnight start, petroleum prices temporarily drifted lower during early morning trading, moving in tandem with broader risk assets as market participants paused ahead of the highly anticipated CPI inflation print. However, early morning social media posts from President Trump quickly reversed the slide, sending crude prices back upward. Later in the session, the CPI data provided an additional macro tailwind. The headline monthly inflation pace landed squarely in line with expectations, while core inflation came in below consensus estimates, driven by declines in used automobile prices and car insurance premiums. Momentum accelerated into the afternoon following midday comments from President Trump indicating that an additional U.S. strike on Iran was imminent, propelling WTI to settle near the highs of the day. :Weekly EIA statistics confirmed a bullish data set. Commercial crude inventories showed a substantial draw as domestic refineries continue to aggressively ramp up run rates. This draw was further exacerbated by a combination of low crude imports and a steady pace of outbound U.S. crude exports. On the product side, gasoline demand ticked higher in line with seasonal patterns, though it continues to lag behind historical seasonal baselines. However, exceptionally strong product exports provided a distinctly bullish bias to the gasoline complex. Distillate inventories recorded a marginal build for the week but remain structurally tight and well below historic averages. After today's upward push, WTI is currently brushing against initial overhead resistance at the 20-day moving average of $91.25. A clean break above this level exposes the next major resistance tier near $95.00. On the downside, initial support has shifted back to the $86.00 mark.

This week EIA stats showed a sharper than expected decline in Crude stocks - and refined product inventories close to expectations. Notable details include Crude - refinery runs are near peak now as we enter gasoline season - leading to a further draw in Cushing stocks to the lowest level in 6 months. The other interesting detail is that production was slightly up on the week - but it is for now a relatively small change.    Gasoline - while demand and imports are close to recent trends - we did see a huge jump in exports. This bears watching for the coming weeks. Distillates - most data points were in line - but despite the small build - Pad 1-3 inventories remain well below the range of the previous years

Reuters alerts - Trump on Iran - we're going to be attacking them very hard Alerts History * 10 Jun 2026 11:48:12 AM - TRUMP ON IRAN: WE'RE GOING TO BE ATTACKING THEM VERY HARD * 10 Jun 2026 11:48:38 AM - TRUMP ON IRAN: THEY SHOULD SIGN THE DEAL * 10 Jun 2026 11:49:46 AM - TRUMP ON IRAN: WE WANT A DEAL THAT'S MEANINGFUL AND WORKS * 10 Jun 2026 11:50:25 AM - TRUMP ON IRAN: GOING TO HIT THEM AGAIN HARD TODAY * 10 Jun 2026 11:50:33 AM - TRUMP ON IRAN: WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE DEAL * 10 Jun 2026 11:50:39 AM - TRUMP ON IRAN: THEY KEEP TAPPING US ALONG

f) Palm Oil Malaysian Palm Oil futures have slipped to a two-week low, pressured by the broader pullback in energy prices alongside a slowing export pace for Malaysian barrels.  Immediate overhead resistance sits at the 50-day moving average of 4,577 Ringgit/ton, while major downside support rests at the 100-day moving average of 4,405 Ringgit/ton. g) Natural Gas U.S. Henry Hub futures have eased slightly on moderated near-term weather forecasts, shifting back into a sideways trading range ahead of peak summer cooling demand. Concurrently, global natural gas benchmarks remain supported despite broader geopolitical headlines, underpinned by production losses in the Middle East and persistently low storage inventories across Europe.

Market Moves / Macro Despite a recent flare-up in hostilities between Iran and Israel, broader financial markets appear to retain an underlying optimism regarding a eventual resolution, supported in part by President Trump’s apparent willingness to force a diplomatic deal. Nevertheless, geopolitical risk in the Middle East will remain a crucial variable for the medium-term outlook, even if it temporarily recedes into the background. On the macroeconomic front, the aftermath of last week’s strong U.S. labor data has kept traders cautious regarding the interest rate path. This caution drove a risk-off session across U.S. equity markets today as participants squared positions ahead of tomorrow's key inflation report. Adding to the picture of resilient U.S. economic expansion, this morning's Existing Home Sales data exceeded consensus expectations, prompting the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tracker to point toward a robust 3.2% growth pace for the U.S. economy. On the global front, Chinese trade data showed both exports and imports coming in stronger than expected, depicting a steady baseline for the domestic economy. Looking ahead to the rest of the week, market focus centers on the U.S. inflation data tomorrow and the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. Since last Friday, WTI is down 2.4%, Brent is down 1.5 % and RBOB is down 0.8%.  US equities are down 0.2 %, Gold is down 1.8 %, Nat Gas is down 2.8 %.and Propane is down 1.2%. In the Ag markets – Corn is up 0.6% and soybeans are down 0.7% Sugar is down 0.4 % Natural Rubber was down 1.8% and Palm oil was down 0.6%  Commodity Fundamental inputs and focus a) Petroleum Petroleum markets remain highly headline-driven, balancing a series of conflicting structural signals. On one side, U.S. commercial inventories continue their downward trend; on the other, Chinese crude imports have shown a sharp slowdown. However, the underlying geopolitical math remains intact: for every day the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption or closure, roughly 12 million barrels of crude run the risk of being shut in. The intermediate question for the market will be determining how much of the drop-off in Chinese crude imports reflects genuine demand deceleration versus a tactical shift toward drawing down domestic reserve stocks. Looking at the charts,  WTI finds established support between $80.00 and $86.00, with overhead resistance now solidified in the $91.00 to $95.00 zone. b) Petrochemical / China Chinese crude imports came in notably lower than even leading tanker tracking services had anticipated. May imports landed at 33 million tons, marking a clear step down from the 38.5 million tons recorded in April and the Q1 monthly average of 49 million tons. c) LPG Ample domestic and global inventories continue to cushion the LPG market, leaving propane prices with dampened structural volatility for the time being. d) Grains Grain prices are trading within a cautious range ahead of tomorrow's monthly USDA WASDE report. While this specific iteration is typically viewed as a lower-impact release given that market focus remains fixed on the developing current crop, analysts will closely monitor how the agency tweaks its global demand adjustments. Recent favorable weather across the grain belt has driven prices lower, but values have now reached a threshold where the majority of U.S. producers are barely breaking even. As a result, we may see a period of price stability and sideways consolidation until the market enters the critical crop-weather window of late June through early August. Corn support is identified around $4.00 with resistance at $4.40. Soybeans show support at $11.00 and overhead resistance at $11.70. e) Sugar Sugar futures have spent the past two weeks consolidating in a tight band between 14.00 and 14.50cents. The market remains well-balanced, as ongoing harvest pressure out of Brazil caps immediate upside moves, while steady ethanol parities and underlying producer cost pressures provide an active floor.

Following yesterday's sharp flare-up in tensions between Iran and Israel, a forceful public warning from President Trump led to an initial retracement in energy prices. This negative bias was supported by Chinese trade data, which showed crude imports for May hitting 33.08 million tons—a 36% decline compared to last year. The downward trajectory accelerated following the U.S. market open, paced by a broad sell-off in equities. Traders actively shed risk assets ahead of tomorrow's crucial inflation data, particularly given last Friday's strong jobs report and a better-than-expected Existing Home Sales report released this morning. However, the decline in the petroleum complex stalled and reversed course around noon EST. Prices caught a bid after President Trump asserted that the U.S. would respond to the Iranian downing of a U.S. helicopter, keeping the regional risk premium active. Tomorrow, market focus shifts back to the weekly EIA statistics, where gasoline demand details remain important, heading into the summer driving season. Technically, today's down-and-up move leaves WTI with minor support around $86.35, matching the low from May 29th. A break below this level opens up a potential downside target to test the 100-day moving average, which currently sits at $81.54. On the upside, the 50-day moving average at $91.91 serves as initial resistance, with deeper overhead resistance established at the 20-day moving average of $94.85.

EIA, week ending 6/14 Crude oil: -2.5M Domestic prod: 13.2MMbpd Cushing: +0.3M Gasoline: -2.3M Mogas supplied: 9.39MMbpd Distillates: -1.7M Refiner utilz: 93.5% Ref inputs: 16.77MMbpd Total exports: 11.0MMbpd

2024/06/14 EIA Weekly data snapshot Key Finding은 다음과 같습니다. - Mogas 및 Blending components 재고가 감소하고 Implied mogas demand가 9.386MBPD를 기록하며 5월 중순이후 악화일로를 보이던 Mogas시황에 긍정적 Data가 발표됨. 다만 금주 발표된 mogas demand 수치는 휴일을 앞두고 Retailer들이 선주문을 한 수량이 과대계상 되었을 가능성이 존재함. 일각에서는 최근 Retail/Wholesale 가격이 반등하며 Retailer들이 하절기 대비를 위한 재고비축성 주문도 몰린 것으로 해석하는 의견도 있음. 그럼에도 불구하고 4주평균 수요가 지속 우상향 하는 것은 수요자체는 견조하다는 시각을 뒷받침 해주는 것으로 풀이됨. - 정유사 가동률이 전주 대비 소폭 하락했는데, 작년과 비슷한 WoW 커브를 보이고 있어 공급측면에서 큰 변수로 보기 어려우며, 전체 재고 수준이 작년보다 높다는 점을 고려하면 작년과 비슷한 수준의 가동률 유지는 여전히 Mogas 시장에 부담스러운 요소. - Blender들의 blending activity가 전주대비 활발해졌으나, 시황 개선보다는 보유하고 있는 악성 고가 Octane을 블렌딩 후 수출하여 정리하고 시장에 존재하는 상대적으로 저렴한 유분으로 교체하려는 수요가 영향을 주고 있다는 시각이 존재함. 정유사들이 탱크에 보유한 Reformate 및 Aromatics octane도 재고가 높은 편. 다만 정유사들은 해당 유분을 sell-off하기 보다는 여름철로 끌고가면서 시황 개선 여부를 관찰하려는 의지가 강함. - 최근 Blending value는 저점에서 반등하여 다소 개선되었으며, RBOB+70~80cpg 수준을 형성하고 있으나 거래가 활발하지는 않은 것으로 보임. C5/RBOB Spread도 금주에 들어서며 반등세를 보이고 있으나, Spread 반등이 Blending value 반등에 영향을 미치려면 다소 시간이 필요할 것으로 판단됨. - 원유 선물 시장은 일단 사우디가 더 이상 M/S를 지키기 위한 강력한 정책적 의지를 보여주지 않고 있어, 다시 Macro에 영향을 받기 시작함. 현재 Macro 측면에서 가장 화두는 미국 Equity 마켓의 지속적 상승인데, 전체 시장 분위기가 Bullish betting으로 쏠리면서 Commodity 시장도 동반 강세를 보이고 있음. 원유 선물도 자체 시장 수급보다는 금융상품 전체의 낙관적 분위기 속에 최근 2주간 보여준 완만한 상승세 유지될 것으로 전망. 단, 상단은 제품 Crack 약세(특히 Mogas crack 약세)가 개선되지 않으면 막혀 있는 것으로 판단됨