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Palm Oil & Vegetable Oils Market Update | 10 August 2026 Palm oil started the week on a firmer note, supported by stronger rival vegetable oils, higher crude oil and continuing concerns over dry weather in Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the market is trading cautiously ahead of today's MPOB July supply & demand data and the first August export estimates. The October BMD FCPO was trading around RM4,692/MT, up about 0.3% in early trade. What is supporting palm oil? Rival oils are stronger. Dalian palm oil gained around 0.7%, Dalian soybean oil rose 0.4%, while CBOT soybean oil was up around 0.7%. This is providing positive external support to BMD. Crude oil is also firmer as uncertainty remains over when the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen. Iran says an agreement with Oman on new shipping lanes is nearing completion, but other conditions remain unresolved. Higher crude prices improve palm oil's economics as a biodiesel feedstock. Weather is another factor worth watching. Current forecasts continue to indicate enhanced dryness across Malaysia and Indonesia, which is unfavourable for oil palm. If this persists, production concerns could become increasingly important to the market. Today's main focus: MPOB The biggest event today will be the release of Malaysia's July palm oil data. Market expectations are leaning towards higher inventories, potentially reaching a five-month high, as production is expected to have grown faster than demand. At the same time, cargo surveyors will release Malaysia's Aug 1–10 export estimates, so today's combination of production, stocks and early-August exports should give us a much clearer picture of the physical market. Soybean oil relationship is changing One interesting point is that the traditional relationship between U.S. soybean oil and CPO may not be as straightforward as before. With a large share of U.S. soybean oil increasingly absorbed by domestic renewable-fuel demand, a good U.S. soybean harvest does not necessarily translate directly into heavy pressure on palm oil. However, a major U.S. soybean crop problem would be different: it could force the U.S. to pull more feedstocks from international markets, potentially becoming supportive for the broader vegetable oil complex, including palm. China has also returned as a buyer of U.S. soybeans, with 238,000 MT reported sold for 2026/27 delivery. Broader agricultural markets CBOT soybeans were around 0.5% higher at $11.81¾/bushel, while corn gained around 0.5%. Wheat was considerably stronger, rising around 1.7% to $6.50¾/bushel, as continued Russian and Ukrainian attacks on export infrastructure increased concerns over Black Sea supply, freight, insurance costs and vessel movements. France is also facing a major corn production setback, with its 2026 crop forecast at just 9 million MT, down 35% YoY, following heat waves and drought. CPO levels to watch Near-term technical indications point to: Resistance: RM4,700/MT Support: RM4,650/MT The broader CPO uptrend still looks constructive, although some consolidation around current levels would not be surprising. My focus today For me, the key is whether today's MPOB stock build is already priced into the market. If inventories rise as expected but exports show good momentum while weather remains dry, the market could absorb the bearish stock number relatively well. A move and hold above RM4,700 would strengthen the bullish picture. On the other hand, weaker exports combined with a larger-than-expected inventory build could trigger some profit-taking. For now, palm oil remains supported, but today's MPOB and export numbers should determine the next direction. #PalmOil #CPO #FCPO #VegetableOils #SoybeanOil #MPOB #Commodities #EdibleOils #Malaysia #Indonesia

Palm Oil Market Update | 6 August 2026 (Midday) Malaysian palm oil futures eased for a second consecutive session as traders locked in profits following the recent rally. Market participants are now shifting their focus to the upcoming Malaysian export estimates and the MPOB monthly supply and demand report for fresh market direction. Market Highlights BMD October Palm Oil slipped 25 ringgit (0.53%) to RM4,677/MT at the midday break. Profit-taking dominated trading after two consecutive days of gains. The market is awaiting: -August export estimates -MPOA production data -MPOB monthly report (10 August), which is expected to provide the next major catalyst. External Markets External markets remained slightly bearish: Crude oil continued to soften as optimism surrounding Iran-Oman negotiations raised hopes of improved shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. Lower energy prices reduced palm oil's attractiveness as a biodiesel feedstock. CBOT soybean oil fell around 0.55%, while Dalian soyoil was marginally lower and Dalian palm oil edged slightly higher. The Malaysian ringgit strengthened modestly, making Malaysian palm oil slightly more expensive for overseas buyers. Malaysian Physical Market Cash market prices softened alongside futures. FOB Malaysia -RBD Palm Oil (Aug): USD 1,140/MT (-USD5) -RBD Palm Olein (Aug): USD 1,145/MT (-USD5) -PFAD: USD 1,060/MT (-USD7.50) -South Malaysia CPO (Delivered): RM4,530/MT (-RM30) Indonesian Physical Market FOB Dumai quotations remained relatively stable: -CPO: USD 1,205/MT (August) -RBD Palm Olein: USD 1,130/MT -PFAD: USD 1,020/MT -Stearin: USD 1,080/MT Market Focus The market remains in a wait-and-see mode ahead of next week's MPOB report. Traders will closely monitor: -Malaysia's production growth -Export performance during early August -Inventory levels -Continued developments in crude oil prices and the Middle East -Weather conditions across Southeast Asia Bottom Line Palm oil is currently experiencing a healthy correction after its recent recovery. Profit-taking, softer crude oil and weaker soybean oil are weighing on prices in the short term, but attention is now firmly on the upcoming MPOB report, which is expected to determine the market's next direction. Any signs of slower production growth, stronger exports or tighter inventories could provide fresh support for prices.

SPPOMA 1st-5th August 2026 Yield : -9.30% OER. : +0.18% Prod: -8.35%

Palm Oil & Vegetable Oils Market Update | 6 August 2026 Malaysian palm oil futures opened slightly lower after two consecutive sessions of gains, pressured by weaker CBOT soybean oil and softer crude oil prices. The benchmark October FCPO contract was down around RM11–13/MT at RM4,689–4,691/MT in early trade. Key Market Drivers CBOT soybean oil declined overnight as improved rainfall forecasts across the U.S. Midwest supported soybean crop prospects. Crude oil remained under pressure as markets assessed whether progress in Iran-Oman negotiations could lead to a broader U.S.-Iran agreement and improve shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower crude oil prices reduce palm oil’s relative attractiveness as a biodiesel feedstock. Dalian vegetable oils were slightly firmer, but this was not enough to offset weakness from Chicago and energy markets. Currency signals were mixed, although the ringgit remained an important factor for export competitiveness. Palm Oil Fundamentals Despite the softer opening, the broader market continues to receive support from expectations of stronger exports. India’s edible oil imports reportedly reached a 10-month high in July, as refiners rebuilt inventories ahead of the peak festive demand season. European palm oil asking prices remained stable despite higher Malaysian futures. Freight for a 40,000-tonne palm oil cargo from Malaysia or Indonesia to Rotterdam was assessed at around USD93/MT. Weather also remains a key concern. Enhanced dryness across parts of Malaysia and Indonesia is considered unfavourable for oil palm and could become more supportive if the dry pattern persists. Rival Oils ICE canola remained firm despite weaker soybean oil and crude oil, with November futures rising to CAD766/MT. Canadian canola conditions remain generally favourable, although hotter and drier weather is creating stress in some southwestern areas. EU rapeseed oil prices strengthened, while palm kernel oil and coconut oil markets showed significant volatility. PKO offers weakened sharply in Europe, while coconut oil prices also moved lower in several forward positions. Technical Levels Resistance: RM4,781/MT Support: RM4,440/MT In the near term, the market is likely to remain sensitive to movements in crude oil, CBOT soybean oil, export demand and Southeast Asian weather. Overall View Palm oil is undergoing a mild correction after its recent recovery. External pressure from weaker soybean oil and crude oil is limiting gains, but stronger Indian demand, export optimism and emerging dryness across Southeast Asia continue to provide underlying support.

Palm Oil Market Update | 6 August 2026 Palm oil extended its recovery for a second consecutive session, supported by expectations of stronger export demand, particularly from India. However, gains remained limited as weaker crude oil and soybean oil prices continued to cap upside momentum. Key Market Highlights BMD Palm Oil (October) closed 8 ringgit higher at RM4,704/MT, marking a second day of gains. India's edible oil imports climbed to a 10-month high in July, as refiners rebuilt inventories ahead of the festive season, providing support to palm oil demand. CBOT soybeans and soyoil declined for a second straight session as forecasts called for timely rainfall across the U.S. Midwest, improving crop prospects. ICE Canola ended higher despite weaker crude oil and soybean oil, supported by technical buying while Canadian crop conditions remain favourable. Brent crude finished little changed around USD79.45/bbl, as markets balanced optimism over renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations against continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Physical Market The physical market remains relatively quiet despite firmer futures. European palm oil prices were largely unchanged. Export optimism and stronger Indian demand continue to underpin sentiment. India remained the main buyer, while many other destinations stayed on the sidelines. Malaysian CPO traded around RM4,520–4,530/MT, showing resilience despite softer external markets. PKO continued to weaken, while spot BMD remained relatively tight. Indonesia's Export Policy Attention remains on Indonesia's proposed commodity export reforms. Bloomberg reported that President Prabowo's plan to centralize exports of commodities such as palm oil, coal and nickel through Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) is facing differing views within the government. While the administration is pushing for a centralized export mechanism, some officials reportedly favour a less disruptive oversight and price-monitoring role instead. The final implementation remains uncertain and will be closely watched by the market. Biofuels The renewable fuels market remains constructive: European renewable diesel and SAF fundamentals continue to strengthen as feedstock availability tightens. UCO prices held firm, while POME values improved across Southeast Asia. Germany's low Rhine River levels continue to raise concerns over biodiesel feedstock logistics. The Netherlands approved additional support for SAF production, highlighting continued long-term demand growth for biofuel feedstocks. What to Watch Malaysia's July MPOB production, exports and stocks report. Export demand from India and other major importing countries. U.S. Midwest weather during the critical soybean pod-filling stage. Developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and any impact on crude oil prices. Further clarity on Indonesia's proposed centralized export system. Bottom line Palm oil fundamentals remain supportive thanks to improving export demand and tightening biofuel feedstock markets. However, softer soybean oil, cautious energy markets, and uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's export policy continue to limit stronger upside momentum in the near term.

Palm Oil Market Update | 5 August 2026 Palm oil started the week on a stronger footing, supported by gains in rival vegetable oils and higher crude oil prices, with the benchmark October FCPO contract closing at RM4,695/MT, its highest level in 11 days. However, sentiment across the broader commodity complex turned more cautious overnight after optimism over renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations triggered a sharp correction in energy markets. Brent crude fell more than 5%, dragging soybean oil and CBOT soybean futures lower as traders priced in the possibility of improved oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Key Market Highlights Palm oil rallied to an 11-day high, supported by stronger rival edible oils and crude oil. Brent crude dropped over 5% after signs of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, easing concerns over supply disruptions. CBOT soybeans and soyoil declined as weaker energy prices reduced biodiesel-related demand expectations. ICE canola remained resilient, posting gains despite weakness in the broader vegetable oil complex. European palm oil prices were largely unchanged, with quiet physical trading offsetting stronger Malaysian futures. Plantation Sector in Focus One interesting trend is that both local and foreign investors were net buyers of Malaysian plantation stocks in July. This may reflect a more efficient way to gain exposure to palm oil. Unlike holding long CPO futures—where investors face a negative carry when rolling positions forward—plantation equities provide indirect exposure to stronger palm oil prices while also offering earnings potential and dividend income. Production Outlook Latest KLK plantation data indicates that PM KER continues to outperform the MPOB industry trend, suggesting stronger-than-average extraction performance. With the July MPOB report due next week, the market will be watching closely to see whether national data confirms this improving trend. What to Watch MPOB July production, export and stock data next week. Progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and any impact on crude oil prices. Weather developments across key soybean and palm-growing regions. Continued fund flows into plantation equities versus commodity futures. Bottom line: Palm oil fundamentals remain constructive, but external markets—particularly crude oil and geopolitical developments—are likely to drive short-term price direction. If energy prices remain under pressure, palm oil could see some profit-taking, although supportive plantation fundamentals and improving extraction rates should continue to provide underlying support.

India's edible oil imports to surge July-October as supplies shrink before festivals MUMBAI (July 22): India's edible oil imports are set to climb between July and October as slower soybean and rapeseed crushing erodes domestic supplies, ahead of peak festive demand, industry officials said on Wednesday. Imports are expected to rise to an average of 1.5 million tonnes a month between July and October, ​BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India and four other industry officials told Reuters. Higher imports of palm oil and soyoil by India — the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oils — are expected to reduce inventories in key suppliers Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil, while supporting benchmark Malaysian palm oil and soyoil futures........... https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/811646

Palm Oil Market Update Malaysian palm oil futures extended their decline for a second consecutive session, pressured by weaker performance across competing vegetable oil markets and uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's implementation of its B50 biodiesel programme. The benchmark October FCPO contract eased 0.28% to RM4,597/MT during midday trading. Market Drivers Dalian soyoil fell 1.12%, while Dalian palm oil declined 0.53%. CBOT soyoil also traded lower, adding pressure across the global vegetable oil complex. As palm oil competes directly with other edible oils, weakness in rival markets continues to weigh on prices. One of the key factors limiting market confidence is the uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's B50 biodiesel rollout. While Indonesia has already allocated 15.64 million kilolitres under its B40 programme, the government has yet to announce the additional biodiesel allocations required for the planned B50 implementation. If fully implemented, the B50 mandate is expected to increase Indonesia's annual crude palm oil consumption from approximately 15.2 million tonnes to between 16.3 and 17.0 million tonnes, tightening domestic supply and reducing export availability. Supportive Fundamentals Remain Despite today's correction, several factors continue to provide underlying support: Palm oil remains competitively priced versus other vegetable oils. Ongoing El Niño concerns continue to raise production risks across Southeast Asia. The eventual implementation of Indonesia's B50 programme could significantly tighten global palm oil supplies. Crude oil prices continued to strengthen, improving palm oil's competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock. Market Outlook The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects crude palm oil prices to trade within a range of RM4,400–4,650/MT during August. Technical View From a technical perspective, palm oil remains in a short-term corrective phase after breaking below its recent rising channel. Key levels to watch Resistance: RM4,625 → RM4,642 → RM4,665 Support: RM4,580 → RM4,560 → RM4,524 Overall View The current weakness appears to be driven mainly by external market pressure and uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's biodiesel policy rather than any major deterioration in palm oil fundamentals. While short-term sentiment remains cautious, the combination of stronger energy prices, potential supply tightening from Indonesia's B50 programme, and weather-related production risks continues to support a constructive medium-term outlook for palm oil.

CPO Prices to Remain Range-Bound at RM4,400–RM4,650 as Firmer Energy Markets Offset Soft Demand KUALA LUMPUR, 22 July 2026 — Malaysia’s palm oil production rose 8.0% month-on-month to 1.63 million tonnes in June 2026, reflecting the seasonal production upcycle which typically starts in March. However, June 2026 output remained 3% lower than in June 2025, marking the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline. Exports also rose by 6.1% month-on-month to 1.20 million tonnes in June 2026, although volume remained 4% below June 2025. The weaker performance was due to softer oils and fats consumption in major markets such as China and India amid the lingering impact of the West Asia conflict. Vegetable oil prices in the European market recorded mixed performance in July. Palm oil and soybean oil prices increased by 3% and 6% month-on-month, while sunflower oil and rapeseed oil declined by 1% and 2% respectively. Strong biodiesel demand in the US and Indonesia continues to provide a structural price floor for soybean oil and palm oil. Malaysia’s palm oil supply outlook remains favourable in the near term. MPOB data showed that production was broadly stable in 1H 2026, while stocks increased to 2.5 million tonnes in June. The resilience in production was driven mainly by a higher oil extraction rate (OER). In the first half of 2026, the average oil extraction rate from fresh fruit bunches improved to 20.08%, up from 19.45% in the same period last year and the highest level recorded in a decade. The higher OER was likely supported by favourable rainfall in 2025, which improved the oil content of FFB harvested this year. However, if El Nino develops in early 2027, drier conditions could weaken the OER. Oilseed production is expected to continue expanding globally, but growth in the three major oilseeds is forecast to slow in the 2026/27 season. Combined soybean, sunflowerseed and rapeseed output is projected to increase by only 16.5 million tonnes from a year earlier, well below the average annual increase of 22.7 million tonnes recorded over the past four years........... https://www.mpoc.org.my/cpo-prices-to-remain-range-bound-at-rm4400-rm4650-as-firmer-energy-markets-offset-soft-demand/

Palm Oil Technical Update Palm oil futures remain in a short-term corrective phase after breaking below the lower boundary of the recent rising channel, increasing the likelihood of further downside before the broader trend resumes. The immediate focus is on the RM4,560–4,580/MT support zone, which is expected to be the next area where buying interest could emerge. The recent consolidation around RM4,600/MT appears to be a temporary pause within the ongoing correction rather than a sign of renewed bullish momentum. On the upside, RM4,625/MT is the first resistance level to watch. A decisive break above this level would improve sentiment and could pave the way for a retest of the RM4,642–4,665/MT resistance zone. The daily chart continues to show palm oil trading within a broader ascending triangle, but repeated failures to break above the upper trendline suggest that bullish momentum has weakened. Unless prices can reclaim higher resistance levels, the risk of a deeper pullback towards the lower trendline around RM4,524/MT remains elevated. Key Technical Levels Resistance: RM4,625 → RM4,642 → RM4,665/MT Support: RM4,580 → RM4,560 → RM4,524/MT Overall View The near-term outlook has turned slightly bearish, with momentum favouring further consolidation after the recent rally. However, the broader market structure remains constructive as long as prices continue to hold above the key support around RM4,524/MT. A move outside the RM4,524–4,675/MT range is likely to determine the market's next major direction.

Daily Palm Oil Market Update Global edible oil markets traded with a mixed tone as profit-taking emerged after the recent rally, while geopolitical risks and tightening supply expectations continued to provide underlying support. Market Highlights Malaysian palm oil futures closed 0.73% lower at RM4,609/MT, pressured by weaker Dalian vegetable oils and softer crude oil prices. Despite the decline, the market continued to hold above the important RM4,600/MT psychological support level. European palm oil prices were largely unchanged, with weaker Malaysian futures offset by firm crude oil prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions. CBOT soybeans eased on profit-taking after reaching multi-month highs. Better-than-expected U.S. soybean crop ratings reduced immediate weather concerns, while soymeal strengthened and soyoil edged lower. ICE canola futures also retreated as traders and farmers locked in profits after prices climbed above CAD800/MT, although crop conditions in Canada remain generally favorable. Energy & Geopolitics Crude oil remained volatile as markets balanced hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations against escalating geopolitical risks. Key developments include: Reports of a proposed 10-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Continued military activity in the Middle East. Iran reporting two oil tankers immobilized in the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis announcing a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, adding fresh uncertainty to global energy markets. Meanwhile, a new Goldman Sachs outlook projecting Brent crude at USD120/bbl by Q4 2026 has attracted significant market attention. If realized, stronger energy prices would improve biodiesel economics and provide additional long-term support for palm oil demand. Indonesia Indonesia continues moving forward with its new centralized commodity export system. State-owned Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) confirmed that a soft launch of its integrated export governance platform will begin in September, with palm oil among the first strategic commodities to be managed under the new system. The initiative aims to improve export transparency while reducing under-invoicing and transfer pricing. Industry participants will be closely monitoring how the new system affects export flows, documentation, and shipment efficiency. Trade Update The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued preliminary countervailing duty determinations covering certain fatty acids imported from Malaysia and Indonesia. The investigation focuses on whether producers received government subsidies that could distort trade. While this affects a specific downstream oleochemical segment rather than crude or refined palm oil, it highlights increasing trade scrutiny on palm-derived products entering the U.S. market. Industry Insights Indonesia's January–June 2026 export data shows Olam remained the largest palm oil buyer, while Citra Borneo Utama (CBU) ranked as the leading supplier. Plantation performance remains a key focus, with reports indicating some estates are achieving fresh fruit bunch yields equivalent to around 30 tonnes per hectare, demonstrating the productivity potential under strong agronomic management. India continues to offer one of the most competitive destinations for palm oil versus competing vegetable oils, although import margins remain negative, limiting buying interest.

closure would revive the fertiliser supply constraints that weighed on smallholder application rates earlier in the year, potentially reducing palm oil supply availability from the region over the longer term into 2026/27. Looking ahead, the third quarter presents a window in which palm oil's competitive pricing and ample inventories could attract meaningful demand recovery — particularly from India as the festival-period restocking cycle begins. Indonesia's export trajectory will depend on commercial front-loading ahead of DSI's full implementation, and the gradual formalisation of B50 allocations affecting export availability. The key catalysts remain India's import normalisation and development of the Hormuz disruptions.

Malaysian palm oil export recovers, while Indonesia's policy shifts may reshape flows - - LSEG Research & Insights Commodities 2026/07/21 12:05 PM Malaysia’s palm oil export performance continues to recover. The June Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) report showed exports recovering to 1.20 million tonnes in June after two consecutive months of decline. The positive momentum has continued into July, with cargo surveyor data indicating that exports of Malaysian palm oil products during 1–20 July increased by around 4% compared with the same period in June. In Indonesia, GAPKI data showed that May exports totalled 1.996 million tonnes, including refined products, down 25% year on year and 28% from the previous month. The decline likely reflected commercial caution following the announcement of export centralization under Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) during the month. However, export activity has recovered thereafter, with Indonesian exporters accelerating shipments ahead of the transition to the new centralized export system, which is expected to take effect in September. Our projections suggest that Malaysian exports will rise modestly in the 2025/26 season compared with 2024/25, supported by competitive export availability. In contrast, Indonesian export availability may tighten as the B50 biodiesel mandate increases domestic consumption and the new export system begins to reshape trade flows. India's import behaviour remains the critical demand-side variable. June palm oil arrivals fell to 492,000 tonnes — the lowest in over a year — while soyoil and sunflower oil imports also contracted sharply, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Total vegetable oil imports dropped to 1.1 million tonnes, down 17% from May. The pullback pointed to general weakness of veg-oil demand, partly due to India's cooking gas shortage suppressing veg-oil demand from commercial food outlets. However, early July signals suggest a turning point may be approaching, with market reports indicating renewed buying activity and expectations that India could ramp up imports over the next few months as the country enters its peak import period. Indian monsoon rains have intensified following a quiet stretch that had left farmers waiting, with the India Meteorological Department calling for widespread showers that should help replenish soil moisture for kharif planting. However, overall sowing area has been running behind last year's pace. If the domestic oilseed crop underperforms, the vegetable oil imports could expand significantly beyond baseline projections. China’s palm oil import outlook remains stable but not particularly demand driven. Additional palm oil shipments are anticipated to arrive during July and August, supporting import volumes through the 2025/26 season. However, vegetable oil inventories at Chinese ports remain elevated, reducing the urgency for further import purchases. Chinese buyers are unlikely to compete aggressively for Southeast Asian palm supplies unless prices decline sufficiently to encourage opportunistic forward buying. Furthermore, expanding soybean availability from the U.S. and South America continues to provide a competitive alternative, limiting palm oil’s ability to gain additional market share in China. In Europe, the European Commission on 13 July adopted a delegated regulation extending EUDR compliance to palm oil derivatives used in oleochemical manufacturing, effective 30 December 2027. The Commission also confirmed that palm oil waste used in biofuel production — including used cooking oil and palm fatty acid distillate — is exempt from due-diligence obligations, preserving this trade channel. Shipping and logistics risks have resurfaced following the renewed US-Iran military escalation. Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a five-week low in mid-July. The disruption affects global crude oil and fertiliser flows, indirectly supporting palm oil prices through the energy-price linkage and raising input costs for Southeast Asian growers. A prolonged

Palm Oil Market Update Malaysian palm oil futures opened lower today as weaker Dalian vegetable oil markets and softer crude oil prices triggered some profit-taking after the recent rally. The benchmark October FCPO contract declined RM33, or 0.71%, to RM4,610/MT in early trade. Pressure came from: Dalian soyoil falling 0.43% Dalian palm oil declining 0.75% CBOT soyoil easing slightly Crude oil prices retreating from recent highs as the market weighed possible U.S.-Iran mediation efforts against continued attacks and the Houthis’ threat of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia Lower crude oil prices reduce palm oil’s attractiveness as a biodiesel feedstock, which added to the weaker market tone. Malaysian export data remained mixed. AmSpec estimated July 1–20 exports were down 0.9% month-on-month, while Intertek reported an increase of 4.1%. Meanwhile, concerns over future supply remain supportive. Malaysia is expected to face record-high temperatures next year as El Niño strengthens, raising the risk of lower palm oil production. Technical Outlook Palm oil failed to break above the key RM4,665/MT resistance level and may retrace towards RM4,580–4,600/MT. Immediate resistance: RM4,642 Higher resistance: RM4,665–4,677 Support: RM4,600, followed by RM4,580 Overall View The market is undergoing a short-term correction, mainly due to weaker external markets and softer energy prices. However, El Niño concerns and potential future supply tightness continue to provide underlying support.

​Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis say they will block Saudi shipping at Red Sea gateway CAIRO (AP) — Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels on Monday announced they are imposing a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for a blockade on Yemen and a recent attack on Sanaa International Airport, threatening another vital waterway for global shipping and raising fears of renewed conflict. A Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said in a video statement that the maritime ban against Saudi Arabia will be effective immediately, describing it as an “equation of ‘an eye for an eye.’” There were few details on how the embargo might work, but the deputy head of the Houthi media office, Nasruddin Amer, said on X that the Bab al-Mandeb strait will be closed to the Saudis in response to what he called the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years.” Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is the gateway to the Red Sea through which around 12% of the world’s trade usually passes. A fourth of global container trade transits through the 32-kilometer (20-mile)-wide strait to and from the Suez Canal. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked. It is unclear whether the Houthis will resume that level of attack against neighboring Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesperson. https://apnews.com/article/yemen-saudi-arabia-maritime-embargo-fd7c4a3911f7eee18251483fc8af768c

Palm Oil Market & Technical Update Palm oil prices remain supported by stronger fundamentals, although the market is showing signs of a short-term consolidation after failing to break above key resistance. Technical Outlook Palm oil futures were unable to sustain a move above RM4,665/MT, increasing the likelihood of a near-term pullback towards the RM4,580–4,600/MT support zone. The immediate resistance is now at RM4,642/MT. A successful breakout above this level could revive bullish momentum and open the way towards RM4,665–4,677/MT. On the daily chart, prices continue to trade within an ascending triangle, but buying momentum has eased after testing the upper trendline. As long as prices remain within the RM4,524–4,675/MT range, the market is likely to stay in consolidation while waiting for the next decisive breakout. Key Technical Levels Resistance: RM4,642 → RM4,665 → RM4,677/MT Support: RM4,600 → RM4,580 → RM4,524/MT Fundamental Highlights European palm oil prices strengthened following firmer Malaysian futures and growing expectations of tighter global supply. Indonesia's move to centralize palm oil exports through a state-owned one-stop export agency continues to support the market, with expectations of tighter export availability. Stronger crude oil prices also provided additional support, improving palm oil's competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock. European vegetable oils remained firm, supported by: -Rising crude oil prices. -Ongoing disruptions to Ukrainian rapeseed exports due to Black Sea tensions. -Logistics challenges on the Rhine River despite recent rainfall. Coconut oil prices also edged higher, while freight rates from Malaysia/Indonesia to Rotterdam increased slightly. Overall View Palm oil fundamentals remain supportive, driven by tighter Indonesian export expectations, firm energy prices, and ongoing geopolitical supply risks. However, from a technical perspective, the market may experience a short-term correction before attempting another move higher. A decisive breakout above RM4,642–4,665/MT would strengthen the bullish outlook, while holding above RM4,580/MT will be important to maintain the current positive market structure.

Daily Palm Oil Market Update Palm oil prices extended gains to a near one-month high, supported by stronger crude oil prices, firmer Dalian vegetable oils, and renewed concerns over El Niño and tightening global supply. Key Highlights FCPO October futures closed RM45 higher (+0.98%) at RM4,642/MT, supported by higher energy prices and stronger regional edible oil markets. Crude oil settled over 1% higher as the Middle East conflict continued to escalate. While reports of possible U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks provided some optimism, supply risks remain elevated following renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis' announcement of a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia. European palm oil prices strengthened on expectations of tighter Indonesian exports after Indonesia announced plans to centralize palm oil exports under a new state-owned export agency. This policy could reduce export availability and provide additional support to global palm oil prices. Soybeans rallied strongly on concerns over hot and dry weather across the U.S. Midwest, robust export demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, soybean oil ended slightly lower after recent gains. ICE Canola futures surged above CAD800/MT for the first time, supported by higher soybean prices and firmer vegetable oil markets. Recent examples from Indonesia's Agrinas export tenders suggest trading activity remains limited, with many bids failing to materialize after counteroffers, highlighting continued uncertainty around the upcoming export system. ESG / EUDR Update The European Commission has proposed additional exemptions under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), including: Palm oil derivatives used in pharmaceuticals. Waste palm oil derivatives used for biodiesel. Soybeans used for planting. In addition, newly added oleochemical products will only become subject to EUDR requirements after 30 December 2027, providing the industry with a longer transition period. Market Outlook Palm oil fundamentals remain supportive, driven by: Higher crude oil prices. Tightening Indonesian export policies. Renewed El Niño concerns. Strong global vegetable oil sentiment. The key upside risks continue to be geopolitical developments in the Middle East and any further tightening in global edible oil supply, while traders will closely monitor U.S. weather conditions and Indonesia's export policy implementation.

Palm Oil Technical Update Palm oil futures continue to trade with a mild bullish bias, with the market now retesting the RM4,613/MT resistance level. A successful breakout above this level could open the way for a retest of the 9 July high at RM4,630/MT. The recent breakout above the descending trendline remains valid, and the subsequent pullback appears to have completed. As long as prices hold above the trendline support near RM4,584/MT, the outlook remains constructive. Immediate support is seen at RM4,584/MT, followed by RM4,571/MT. A break below these levels would invalidate the recent breakout and increase the risk of a deeper correction towards the RM4,505–4,535/MT support zone. On the daily chart, palm oil continues to consolidate within an ascending triangle, suggesting that the market is building momentum ahead of its next major move. While the overall bias remains positive, price action continues to be characterized by alternating small bullish and bearish candles, indicating that buying momentum is still relatively modest. A confirmed breakout above RM4,613–4,630/MT would strengthen bullish sentiment and could pave the way for the next upside target around RM4,675/MT. Key Technical Levels Resistance: RM4,613 → RM4,630 → RM4,675/MT Support: RM4,584 → RM4,571 → RM4,535 → RM4,505/MT Overall View: The technical outlook remains cautiously bullish. The market is approaching a critical resistance zone, and a decisive breakout above RM4,613–4,630/MT would likely confirm the continuation of the current uptrend. Conversely, a break below RM4,571/MT would weaken the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.

Weekly Palm Oil Market Update The palm oil market continues to be driven by geopolitical risks, energy prices, and weather developments, with the overall tone remaining cautiously bullish. Key Highlights • Middle East tensions remain the biggest market driver. Escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran has significantly reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting crude oil prices and increasing upside risks for vegetable oils. Brent crude could continue testing higher levels if supply disruptions persist. • Palm oil outlook remains constructive. FCPO is consolidating within the RM4,400–4,700/MT range, with the recent price compression suggesting a potential breakout. Current market bias favors the upside, supported by stronger energy markets. • Weather remains supportive across most palm-growing regions in Malaysia and Indonesia. While localized dry areas exist, rainfall has generally been sufficient, keeping El Niño risks under control for now, although conditions will need close monitoring in the coming months. • Commodity funds have turned more bullish, increasing long positions in crude oil, copper, soybean oil and wheat as geopolitical risks intensified and investor sentiment improved. Market Outlook The combination of firm crude oil prices, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and stable weather conditions continues to provide support for palm oil. While short-term volatility is expected, the broader outlook remains positive, with the market closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, weather patterns, and global vegetable oil demand.

​When oil palm estates run short of hands Plantation labour is not mere headcount. It is timing, rhythm and biology translated into human effort. That was why the famous 1:8 ratio became widely used: simple, practical and memorable. But like many useful numbers, it grew too large for its boots. It should guide, not govern. If the 1:8 ratio could speak, I suspect it would confess: “One worker. Eight ha. Do not mistake me for Scripture.” For readers outside the plantation world, the ratio simply means how many ha one worker is expected to help manage. At 1:8, one worker is counted against eight ha. At 1:15 or 1:17.5, the ambition is to cover more land with better systems. But before celebrating any new ratio, one must ask: ratio of what, covering whom, and excluding which work? The traditional 1:8 covered the whole estate workforce. Harvesting alone may be around 1:17, but once upkeep, transport, supervision and support work are added, the weighted estate ratio tightens......... https://www.thestar.com.my/business/insight/2026/07/17/when-oil-palm-estates-run-short-of-hands